Business outlook

Forecasted situation of the Group for 2023

Development of structure

Effective January 1, 2023, FraSec Fraport Security Services GmbH transferred in a second step 25% of the shares in FraSec Aviation Security GmbH, formerly FraSec Luftsicherheit GmbH, to the Dr. Sasse Group. As a result of this transfer, the Dr. Sasse Group holds a 51% majority stake in FraSec Aviation Security GmbH. In addition, at the start of the 2023 fiscal year, Fraport assumed management of the aviation security checks at the Frankfurt site. This will have an impact on the asset, financial, and earnings position of the Fraport Group, in particular the Aviation segment. When preparing the Outlook Report, the Executive Board did not expect any changes to the Group structure that will have a substantial impact on the asset, financial, and earnings position.

Development of competitive position and future markets

Fraport is continuously developing its business activities and Group sites as part of the strategic objective “Growth in Frankfurt and internationally”, (see also the “Strategy” chapter). Among other things, the commissioning of the new runway in Lima is planned for 2023, which will strengthen the competitive position of the site in the long term. Fraport continues its aim to market its airport expertise around the world and participate in the appeal of new markets. In this respect, Fraport selectively assesses whether to participate in international tenders.

Development of the strategy and control system

In view of the economic situation arising from the coronavirus pandemic, Fraport will continue to implement measures derived from the Group strategy in fiscal 2023. The business segments and Group companies continue to work intensively to position Fraport successfully in the competitive environment in the long term. In 2023, Fraport will update the materiality matrix with the involvement of all stakeholders. Depending on the results, the Executive Board will adjust the Group's strategy and the resulting control system.

As described in the “Control system” chapter, the Executive Board will focus on the financial and non-financial performance indicators forecasted in this chapter.

The Executive Board does not expect any fundamental changes to the strategic focus of finance management in 2023.

Forecasted economic environment 2023

Development of the macroeconomic conditions

The global economic outlook for 2023 is subject to a high degree of uncertainty: the further course of the Ukraine war and the associated economic consequences, as well as the future inflation dynamics and the resulting tightening measures of the central banks determine the forecasts of the economic institutes. Only low growth rates or recessions are expected for a large part of the developed economies. The International Monetary Fund expects much weaker global growth of 2.9% for the current year. World trade is expected to reach 2.4% in 2023.

For the US economy, the International Monetary Fund expects an increase of 1.4% for 2023. Growth rates in emerging markets are predicted to be higher than the values in industrialized countries, though projected trends within this group vary. Growth of 5.2% is forecasted for the Chinese economy. Overall expectations for the euro area stand at 0.7%. The German economy is expected to stagnate.

The following GDP trends are expected in 2023 for countries with key Group sites: USA 1.4%, Slovenia 1.7%, Brazil 1.2%, Peru 2.6%, Greece 1.8%, Bulgaria 3.0%, Türkiye 3.0%.

Source: IMF (October 2022, January 2023), OECD (December 2022), Deutsche Bank Research (December 2022), Deka Bank (December 2022), Ifo Institute for Economic Research (December 2022).

Development of the legal environment

At the time the consolidated annual financial statements were prepared, the Executive Board saw no changes in the legal environment in fiscal year 2023 that could have substantial effects on the Fraport Group.

Development of the industry-specific conditions

Based on the expected development in general economic conditions and considering the financial situation of the airlines, IATA anticipates global passenger growth of 21.1% in 2023 compared to the previous year, based on revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs). This would represent a recovery of around 85% compared to the base year 2019. At the regional level, IATA assumes the following year-on-year growth rates based on RPKs:

The Airports Council International (ACI) expects a more positive development of European passenger traffic in 2023 and assumes traffic to reach 91% of the pre-crisis level. The German Airports Association (ADV) also anticipates a clear recovery in travel demand and forecasts that passenger arrivals at German airports in 2023 will reach 82% of the level in the pre-crisis year of 2019.

With travel restrictions largely lifted in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, a strong increase in long-haul traffic to Asia is expected. Despite inflation and increased ticket prices, the desire to travel will remain high in 2023. Business travel demand is also expected to recover further.

Nevertheless, business travel will recover more slowly than leisure travel relative to 2019.

Source: IATA “Economic Performance of the Airline Industry” (October 2022), ACI Airport Traffic Forecast, ADV Press Release 18/2022.

Forecasted business development for 2023

The recovery phase at the Group airports continues to be positive with varying degrees of intensity. Airports with a strong focus on tourism will recover disproportionately and in some cases will be above pre-crisis levels in 2023. Based on the current framework conditions, the following passenger developments are expected in 2023.

The German population will still have a strong desire to fly in 2023. However, in addition to the private travel segment, the recovery of passenger demand in Frankfurt is largely dependent on economic development and the recovery of business travel. Based on the current demand dynamics, a further recovery in passenger numbers is expected in 2023. Overall, passenger numbers at Frankfurt Airport in the 2023 fiscal year are expected to be over 80% up to about 90% of the 2019 level.

Positive traffic development is also expected at the international Group airports, as follows:

At the Ljubljana site, the Executive Board expects a volume of around three quarters of the passenger arrivals seen in 2019. A further passenger recovery compared to the previous year is expected at Lima airport and at the Group airports in Fortaleza and Porto Alegre. This means the respective passenger volumes are continuing to move towards the levels reached in 2019. At the 14 regional Greek airports, the passenger arrivals are expected to be around the same high level as the previous year. Passenger volumes in Antalya will also continue to recover and move toward the pre-crisis level.

Depending on how the war in Ukraine progresses as well as geopolitical developments, changes to the outlook provided are possible.

Forecasted results of operations for 2023

Although uncertainties remain in connection with the operational business development, the expected passenger developments in 2023 will lead to an increase in Group revenue in the 2023 fiscal year. The traffic-related revenue growth is supported by price developments of the charges at the Frankfurt site and at the key Group companies Lima, Fortaleza, and Porto Alegre, as well as at Fraport Greece. On the cost side, the Executive Board also expects higher traffic-related expenses at the Frankfurt site as well as rising concession charges at the Group company Lima and at Fraport Greece. Despite the recent easing on the European energy markets, the Executive Board expects higher expenses from utility services in 2023 compared to 2022. Uncertainties regarding the development of expenses exist in particular due to possible increases in collective bargaining costs at the Frankfurt site, negotiations for which had not yet been concluded at the time the forecast was prepared. Exchange rate effects from the conversion of the functional currencies of Group companies in Lima, Fortaleza, and Porto Alegre as well as Fraport USA into the Group currency, the euro, may also have a positive or negative impact on the earnings contribution from Group companies. The largely earnings-neutral takeover of the management of aviation security controls at the Frankfurt site will also have the effect of increasing revenue and expenses. In contrast, the at-equity inclusion of FraSec Aviation Security GmbH from January 1, 2023 will lead to a reduction in revenue and expenses.

Due to the traffic ranges and the aforementioned uncertainties in view of the development of expenses and income, the Executive Board forecasts a Group EBITDA of between approximately €1,040 million and approximately €1,200 million. The Group result is expected to be between about €300 million and up to about €420 million, with increasing depreciation and amortization as well as an improvement in the financial result. This is mainly due to the discontinuation of the write-off of loan receivables in connection with the St. Petersburg Airport commitment from 2022. The ROFRA is forecasted to be around the 2022 level.

In the context of the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the Executive Board expects to again forego the distribution of dividends for fiscal 2023.

Forecasted segment development for 2023

The planned traffic developments will have a positive impact on the revenue of the four Fraport segments. The Executive Board expects EBITDA in the Aviation segment to exceed the level of 2019 and, depending on passenger development, to be up to around €300 million. The Executive Board also expects an improvement in EBITDA in the Retail & Real Estate segment, which will continue to develop toward pre-crisis levels. Despite volume and price-driven revenue growth, the Executive Board assumes continued cost pressure to ensure quality in the Ground Handling segment. The Executive Board therefore expects segment EBITDA to remain in negative territory in the 2023 fiscal year. Due to the discontinuation of one-off effects from the sale of the investment in Xi'an Airport, which was consolidated at equity, as well as declining compensation effects in connection with the coronavirus pandemic, the Executive Board expects a clear decline in segment EBITDA despite positive operating development in the International Activities & Services segment, which is, however, expected to remain above the level of 2019. Adjusted for the aforementioned special effects, segment EBITDA is expected to be roughly at the level of 2022.

Forecasted asset and financial position for 2023

Despite the traffic-related improvement in operating results, the Executive Board expects free cash flow to remain negative in 2023 due to ongoing expansion activities at the Frankfurt and Lima sites and is forecasted to be in the mid negative triple-digit million euro range. The negative free cash flow will further increase net financial debt. Moreover, cash inflows and outflows in connection with the Group companies as well as exchange rate effects will influence the development of net financial debt. Depending on the improvement in the operating result, the ratio of net financial debt to EBITDA is expected to be roughly at the level of 2022, slightly above to slightly below. Group liquidity is projected to come out at a slightly lower level than in 2022, primarily due to the negative free cash flow, despite plans for comprehensive financial measures.

Forecasted non-financial performance indicators for 2023

In the “Customer Satisfaction and Product Quality” category, the Executive Board expects an overall passenger satisfaction score at Frankfurt Airport and a weighted overall satisfaction score for the Group of at least 80% for 2023. Accordingly, the Executive Board has also set a target of 80% for the fully consolidated Group airports. The Executive Board expects baggage connectivity to be at least 97.0%.

In the “Attractive and responsible employer” category, the next Group-wide survey to measure employee satisfaction will be conducted in 2024. The goal for both the Group and Fraport AG is to exceed the figure for the same period in the previous year. The Executive Board continues to attach great importance to women in management and expects a slight increase in the proportion of women in management positions at all levels.

In the category of “Occupational Health and Safety,” in 2023 the Executive Board will again strive to hold the sickness rate in Germany steady at least at the previous year’s level.

In the “Climate Protection” category, the Executive Board expects CO₂ emissions for the Group and for Fraport AG in 2023 to be roughly on a par with the previous year.

Medium-term outlook

Over the medium term, a strong recovery in the global economy is expected, with a return to the previous growth track. After successfully overcoming the coronavirus pandemic and lifting the travel restrictions, the demand for air travel is rising again. A return to 2019 passenger levels in Frankfurt is expected roughly by 2026. Despite the increasing cost of living, the growth driver internationally will continue to be private consumption, which generally supports high demand for air travel. Group airports will also benefit from forecasted medium- to long-term global market growth and show positive traffic development (see also the “Strategy” chapter).

The projected medium-term passenger recovery and additional forecasted growth in passenger numbers will have a positive impact on the asset, financial, and earnings position of the Fraport Group. Against the backdrop of revenue-increasing price effects and long-term operational efficiency measures, the Executive Board expects to reach and subsequently exceed the Group EBITDA from the pre-crisis level of 2019 as early as 2023/2024.

As a result of the multi-year capital expenditure to expand capacity in Frankfurt and Lima, the free cash flow will remain well in the negative range until 2024 and then recover noticeably. Due to this development, the Group's net financial debt will continue to increase temporarily before decreasing from the 2025 fiscal year onwards. In particular, due to the expected improvement in Group EBITDA, the net financial debt to EBITDA ratio will again approach the target value of five in the medium term.

Future capital expenditure obligations may be financed with debt instruments described above and cash flows from operations (see also the “Financial management” and “Asset and financial position” chapters).

For the dividend payment, the Executive Board aims to resume a dividend policy in the medium term. Before the start of the coronavirus pandemic, this was invested with a pay-out ratio of between 40% and 60% of the profit share of the shareholders of Fraport AG as well as with a dividend that was at least stable compared to the previous year. The Executive Board plans to submit a dividend distribution proposal to the AGM again once the net financial debt to EBITDA ratio approaches the target value of five.

The Executive Board continues to use the non-financial performance indicators to control the Group in the medium term (see also the “Control system” chapter).

_{Where the statements made in this document relate to the future rather than the past, they are based on a number of assumptions about future events and are subject to a number of uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide and which could have the effect that the actual results will differ materially from these statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, the competitive environment in deregulated markets, regulatory changes, the success of business operations, and a substantial deterioration in the underlying economic conditions in the markets in which Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide and its Group companies operate. Readers are cautioned not to rely to an inappropriately large extent on statements made about the future.}